Earthquakes are among the most devastating natural disasters on the planet. In the last hundred years they have claimed the lives of over one million people. Earthquakes are destructive mainly because of their unpredictable nature. It is impossible to say accurately when a quake will strike but a new theory could help save lives by preparing cities long in advance for an earthquake.

“We knew that Izmit was dangerous”

Prof Geoffrey King, Institut de Physique du Globe

The surface of the Earth is made up of large ‘tectonic’ plates. These plates are in slow but constant motion. When two plates push against each other friction generates a great deal of energy. For this reason earthquakes occur most frequently on tectonic fault lines, where two plates meet. However these fault lines run for thousands of kilometres; predicting exactly where a quake will occur is nearly impossible.

Stress lines

In 1992, Dr Ross Stein was monitoring a large earthquake in a town in California called Landers. Three hours later, there was another quake 67km away at Great Bear. Stein believed that this was not simply an aftershock, instead he theorised the event at Landers had set off the earthquake at Big Bear. Stein believes that when an earthquake occurs the stress that has built up along the fault, is in part, transferred along the fault line. It is this energy transfer that causes other quakes to occur hours, days or months after the original.

Stein’s team began to look for connections between the quakes in Landers and Big Bear. They had already been working on a computer model that could help them study the relationship between earthquakes. The data collected during the Landers/Big Bear quake had enabled them to create a model that could predict where the stress from Landers would have been transferred. When they looked at the result the calculations did indeed show that the stress from Landers would have been transferred along the fault to Big Bear. They then plotted all of the subsequent ‘aftershocks’ and discovered that almost all occurred within a high-risk area they called a `red zone’. This did not prove the theory of earthquake storms though. In order to do that the quakes would have to be triggered months or even years after the original earthquake.

Scientists from around the world were attracted by this new theory and there was one part of the world where it seemed from the available evidence that the earthquake storm theory might hold true.

Tremor trail

Prof Geoffrey King was fascinated by the cyclic behaviour of the North Anatolian fault in northern Turkey. Earthquakes in the region moved from east to west with a period of quiet at the end before the cycle began again. King used the same model that had been used to show the connection between the quakes in Landers and Big Bear. The first earthquake King looked at was in the northern city of Erzican in 1939. Using the available data on that quake he found that a town to the west called Tokat was in the red, danger zone. Tokat was indeed struck by a quake in 1942. The model seemed to be working. In 1967 Adapazari, also in a red zone, was hit. It looked like stress generated in one earthquake was being transferred to the west. These could not be aftershocks as they were separated by years, not hours.

As King continued to put data into the model he discovered that a city called Izmit seemed to be the next place that would be struck. With a population of 500,000 people King and other scientists knew they needed to make this discovery public knowledge.

“Buildings can be improved. Construction can be modified”

Prof Geoffrey King

Newspapers, science journals and other publications all printed this remarkable news. Unfortunately there was not enough interest from the local community. In August 1999 King was tragically proved right when a massively energetic earthquake lasting just 45 seconds killed 25,000 people. It was a bittersweet feeling for King. On one hand he was proved right, on the other he knew that many people had lost their lives who could have been saved. King also knew that there was a high chance of more earthquakes. So using the data acquired from the Izmit quake he began to work out where the next most likely earthquake site would be.

The answer would cause a great deal of concern. At the edge of the red zone lay the city of Istanbul, home to more than four million people. The city’s high population density puts its inhabitants at maximum risk. There is good news though; if the warning from King’s team is heeded then arrangements can be made to make Istanbul safer in the event of an earthquake, whenever it happens. For now though, only time will tell if King’s prediction will prove correct.

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pass: calek

This ten volume series was made in 1978 by turning science into a detective story, James Burke creates a series that will fascinate students and adults alike. This interdisciplinary approach has never before been applied to history or science and it succeeds tremendously. Winner of the Red Ribbon in the American Film Festival, the scope of the series covers 19 countries and 150 locations, requiring over 14 months of filming.

As the Sherlock Holmes of science, Burke tracks through 12,000 years of history for the clues that lead us to eight great life changing inventions-the atom bomb, telecommunications, the computer, the production line, jet aircraft, plastics, rocketry and television. Burke postulates that such changes occur in response to factors he call �triggers,� some of them seemingly unrelated. These have their own triggering effects, causing change in totally unrelated fields as well. And so the connections begin…

Volume 1:The Trigger Effect
Both the beginning and the end of the story are here. The end is our present dependence on complex technological networks illustrated by the NYC power blackouts. Life came almost to a standstill: support systems taken for granted failed. How did we become so helpless? Technology originated with the plow and agriculture. Each invention demands its own follow-up: once started, it is hard to stop. This segment ends in Kuwait, where society has leapt from ancient Egypt to the technology of today in 30 years.

Volume 2: Death in the Morning
How did a test of gold’s purity revolutionize the world 2500 years ago and lead to the atomic bomb? Standardizing precious metal in coins stimulated trade from Greece to Persia, causing the construction of a huge commercial center and library at Alexandria. This wealth of nautical knowledge aided navigators 14 centuries later. Mariners discovered that the compass’s magnetized needle did not point directly north. Investigations into the nature of magnetism led to the discovery of electricity, radar and to the atomic bomb.

Volume 3: Distant Voices
Telecommunications exist because the Normans wore stirrups at the Battle of Hastings- a simple advance that caused a revolution in the increasingly expensive science of warfare. Europe turned its attention to making money to wage wars. As mine shafts were dug deeper, they became flooded, stimulating scientists like Galileo to investigate vacuums, air pressure and other natural laws to mine deeper silver. This led to the discovery of electricity and magnetism’s relationship and to the development of radio, and deep space telecommunications that may enable contact with galactic civilizations.

Volume 4: Faith in Numbers
Each development in the organization of systems (political, economic, mechanical, electronic)influences the next, by logic, by genius, by chance, or by utterly unforeseen events. The transition from the Middle ages to the Renaissance was influenced by the rise of commercialism, a sudden change in climate, famine and the Black Death, which set the stage for the invention of the printing press.

Volume 5: The Wheel of Fortune
The power to see into the future with computers originally rested with priest-astronomers who knew the proper times to plant and harvest. The constellations influenced life spectacularly, particularly when the ailing Caliph of Baghad was cured by an astrologer using Greek lore. His ancient medical secrets were translated and spread throughout Europe, ushering in an era of scientific inquiry. The need for more precise measuring devices in navigation gave rise to the pendulum clock, the telescope, forged steel and interchangeable machine parts-the basis of modern industrial system.

Volume 6: Thunder in the Skies
A dramatically colder climate gripped Europe during the 13th century profoundly affecting the course of history for the next seven centuries. The changes in energy usage transformed architecture and forced the creation of new power sources. The coming of the Industrial Revolution, spurred on by advances in the steam engine, scarred England indelibly: but a moment in history later, gasoline-powered engines opened the way to the heavens.

Volume 7: The Long Chain
Often, materials discovered by accident alter the course of the world. In the 1600s Dutch commercial freighters controlled Atlantic trade routes. Competing British lines induced America to produce pitch to protect hulls of their royal vessels. This arrangement lasted until 1776, after which a Scottish inventor tried to produce pitch from coal tar. By the time he succeeded the navy was using copper instead. Subsequent experiments with coal tar yielded gaslight lamps, waterproofed garments, a brilliant mauve dye that established the German chemical industry and nylon, the first of the miracle plastics.

Volume 8: Eat, Drink and Be Merry
When Napoleon marched huge forces across Europe, he needed an efficient way to store provisions. A Frenchman preserved sterilized food in empty champagne bottles, an idea modified by the British, who tried tin cans. Still, canned foods sometimes spoiled, which led to experiments with refrigeration. Later, it was discovered that gases may be stored at very low temperatures in a thermos flask, a device handy for picnics, for polar explorers and for, storing large quantities of liquid oxygen and hydrogen. When lit by a spark these gases can send rockets into space.

Volume 9: Countdown
What happens when you combine a carbon arc light, a billiard ball coating, a spoked wheel and consecutive images? Motion pictures! Complex and sometimes incredible events led to Thomas Edison’s remarkable invention; the beginnings of limelight on a Irish mountain; George Eastman’s production of celluloid from the slightly explosive gun cotton; the “magic lantern” of an Austrian ballistics teacher. Then Eadweard Muybridge settled a bet in 1872 by photographs; does a horse raise all four feet when galloping? (Yes.) Today moving pictures, together with television, are enormously powerful mass media. Have we become trapped by our own technology?

Volume 10: Yesterday, Tomorrow and You
“Why did we do it this way?” Essential moments from the previous programs are reviewed to illustrate the common factors that make for change. Will they go on operating to affect our futures? And if so, can we recognize them? The second half looks at the extent to which we have become increasingly incapable of understanding how change occurs in our complex world and at why we are in such a predicament. Finally, there is a look ahead to the need for radical change in the availability and use of information in the future, if we are to remain in control of our destinies.

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password: calek